Truganina, Hoppers Crossing and Tarneit make up postcode 3029, located in the west of Melbourne, approximately 20 kilometres from the CBD.
According to PEXA’s research, the area witnessed a certified property boom in 2022, recording the most settlements (more than 6,000 sale settlements) and new loans of any locale in the country. The trend has continued throughout FY23.
What’s driving this trend?
Truganina and Tarneit are both designated mostly as Urban Growth Zones (UGZ), created to support the development of well-planned and well-serviced new urban communities, by reducing the number of development approvals needed where an agreed plan is in place.
The story behind 3029
In 2022, PEXA acquired .id (Informed Decisions), specialists who have deep expertise in demographics, economics, housing and population forecasting. They work closely with a team of spatial analysts and software developers to uncover and communicate stories of people and places.
And .id’s Andrew Hedge explains that by looking at the underlying resident data, it’s easy to see why the region is experiencing such rapid expansion.
“In Tarneit, the population age structure is a classic family forming, first home buyer profile – homebuilders in their late 20s to mid-30s and their kids.
“A significant number of new developments are in progress within 3029, housing many young or soon-to-be families – archetypal first homebuyers – with investment in local businesses supporting the local growing population,” explains Andrew.
Hoppers Crossing, while in the same postcode, has a slightly different and quite interesting demographic role and function, and therefore services a different housing market, with the population needing different services. .id’s Hoppers Crossing age-sex pyramid indicates that the suburb has changed significantly over time – historically it had a more established population with lots of young families. Those people have ‘aged in place’, and more recently there have been new, younger families join the area, balancing out the age structure of the population.
“The 1991 population of Hoppers Crossing was demographically different to the new one emerging. There has been a significant decline in the number of people with English, Australian, Italian and Maltese ancestry (the older cohort), and an increase in the population with Indian, Scottish, Chinese and Burmese ancestry in the area more recently. So, in one suburb, you’ve got an older population who are looking to downsize, and a new, younger population. It’s a classic ‘suburb lifecycle’ story,” said Andrew.
id’s population forecasts have this area continuing to grow strongly, with the region forecast to add around 380,000 people over the next 20 years to 2041.
If you are interested in understanding more about the underlying stories of different places in Australia, visit https://home.id.com.au/demographic-resources.