The PEXA Cash Purchases report named postcodes 3880 (Paynesville) and 3909 (Lakes Entrance), both located within the East Gippsland local government area (LGA), and postcode 3851 (Loch Sport) in the neighbouring Wellington LGA in the top-10 postcodes within Victoria for highest share of cash purchases in FY24.
The forecasting experts at .id (informed decisions) expect the region to grow at an average of 0.9 per cent every year or by approximately 28,000 persons between 2021 and 2031, with the fastest growing age category people aged over 70. Retirees are particularly drawn to the natural beauty that Gippsland offers and are more likely to make up a larger portion of the homebuyers who were able to completely fund their purchase using cash, as downsizers are able to use the proceeds from selling another home.
Other prospective homebuyers without this ability may find themselves unable to secure a home loan. A report from the Actuaries Institute states that the rising cost of environmental perils have increased reinsurance costs, making home insurance unaffordable for some households. Given that home insurance is a pre-requisite for lending, this has a flow-on effect for financial institutions, whose current and potential customers may not be able to access affordable insurance.
Natural hazards within the Gippsland region
Gippsland is a region with diverse climatic zones, ranging from dense forests to expansive coastlines, therefore are home to multiple natural hazards.
Land Insight (Part of PEXA Group) analysed Gippsland’s environmental and climate data, revealing that bushfires are one of the main natural hazards historically experienced in Gippsland. From the early 1900s to 2024, Gippsland has recorded a total of 2,155 bushfires, burning approximately 5,808,976 hectares. This means that over the past century, the region has burned nearly 1.5 times its total area.
There have been multiple notable recent bushfires that have affected the Gippsland region. The most significant occurred during the 2019-20 bushfire season, otherwise known as “Black Summer”. There was more than 1.5 million hectares of Victoria was burnt, destroying more than 300 homes – with the Gippsland region accounting for more than 75 per cent of that area burnt.
Nearly all of Gippsland is designated as a bushfire-prone area. This is predominantly due to the proliferation of the vegetation categories that are suitable as fuel for bushfires as Gippsland predominantly consists of state forests and conservation reserves. Bushfire-prone areas require specific planning and development controls, which is important to consider for those interested in buying property in those areas.
The Gippsland area is also home to catchment areas that have been previously inundated with excessive rainfall leading to major flooding. In late June 2007, the Gippsland area received large amounts of rainfall after a significant bushfire event. The exposed soil and lack of vegetation available to uptake the rainfall event resulted in significant insurance cost losses.
Whilst the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are projected to rise in the Gippsland region, the annual average rainfall is expected to decrease with a high emissions scenario projecting a 2 per cent decrease by 2070. As average temperatures are expected to rise, this means that the time spent in drought is projected to increase. These fluctuations between wet and dry atmospheric conditions, otherwise known as hydroclimate whiplash, are expected to be more frequent and intense resulting in more extreme natural hazards.
How do current residents in Gippsland feel about their local area and climate change?
The .id Community Views survey asked a representative sample of residents living in the Gippsland area about their values, needs and lived experience of their local area, with regard to 16 different liveability attributes.
Across the region, liveability in the Latrobe LGA was lowest, but highest in South Gippsland. Residents reported that ‘feeling safe’, ‘access to the natural environment’, ‘health services’ and ‘affordable decent housing’ were the top four attributes that they valued. Their experience of these attributes was broadly similar to the average Victorian surveyed except that Gippsland residents reported a poor experience accessing health services.
89 per cent of residents in Gippsland expressed a belief in climate change. Within that subset, responses on whether or not they currently feel the impacts of climate change and what kind of environmental perils they do expect to face in the near future varies geographically across the region. LGAs with a higher population density along the coast have residents concerned with rising sea levels. This is also true for LGAs with denser populations along rivers and their concerns with flooding. Other than extreme heat, residents in the Gippsland feel like they are much more at risk at all environmental perils in comparison to their metropolitan Melbourne counterparts.
Respondents to the survey were primarily concerned with how climate change is going to impact their cost of living, with the impact on essential services and infrastructure, and impact on recreational activities a secondary concern. 85 per cent of respondents in Gippsland expect their electricity, water or insurance bills to increase as a result of climate change, and 70 per cent expect the cost of food items to increase or be harder to obtain. Only a few respondents expect climate change to have no impact on their lives.
How do we better plan for new housing and infrastructure?
The latest research from .id shows how local governments need to understand the local context for an area when planning for new housing and infrastructure development, and not approve residential developments in unsuitable areas. Those looking to buy a home in these areas in the future need to understand the current and future risks of buying a home in a given peril area. Financial institutions can help their customers to keep their homes safe and access affordable insurance.
For further enquiries about this report or other property and mortgage insights, please contact us at research@pexa.com.au.
About .id (informed decisions)
.id (informed decisions), part of the PEXA Group, is Australia’s leading provider of tools and consulting services that empower confident and strategic local and national decision-making. Our unique analysis and models unlock detailed, evidence-based stories covering demographic, economic and social trends, plus the forecast of population, housing and land supply across Australia.
This independent evidence is built on a breadth of expertise and local area research to help our clients understand local areas in their regional and national context. .id has been trusted by the private sector, local and state government for over 25 years, to provide impartial evidence to inform place-based decisions.
.id have over 25 years of experience working with local government and industry sectors. To learn more about .id’s data and services, visit id.com.au
About Land Insight
Land Insight, part of PEXA Group, helps customers make informed decisions when considering environmental and climate risks relating to property. Our extensive datasets allow for fast, simple and reliable analysis of the risks associated with any land or property in Australia, enabling location-based strategic decisions.
This propriety information is built on years of geospatial expertise, integrated by the newest technology.
For more information about Land Insight’s products and services, please visit landinsight.co/contact.
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